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why most box office figures are complete nonsense

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In an article regarding a kerfuffle about the 12A rating assigned to Dark Knight by the BBFC, the BBC reports that the film has thus far grossed $394.9m in the U.S., and is projected to earn "at least another $100m (£51m), surpassing Star Wars - the number two movie of all time in the US." This is a silly statistic, because by one measurement it is actually the number one movie of all time, by another 73, and by another somewhere around number 10.

A phrase I don't think I've ever seen in combination with movie box office figures is: "when adjusted for inflation". The estimated average ticket price in the U.S. for 2008 is $7.08 (judging from the prices at theaters near me, they must be taking matinee prices into account). In 1977, when Star Wars was originally released, an average ticket cost $2.23 (my goodness, that makes me feel old... Star Wars came out six months before I did). Given that box office figures are typically cited to provide some indication of the popularity of a film, the following calculations may offer a slightly more useful perspective (domestic gross and estimated tickets sold both listed in millions):

RankTitleReleasedDomestic GrossAvg. PriceEst. Tickets
1Titanic1998$600.78$4.69128
2Dark Knight (projected)2008$495.00$7.0870
3Shrek 22004$436.71$6.2170
4E.T.1982$434.95$2.94148
5Star Wars: Episode I - Phantom Menace1999$431.07$5.0885
6Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest2006$423.03$6.5565
7Spider-Man2002$403.71$5.8169
8Dark Knight (currently)2008$394.90$7.0856
42Jaws1975$260.00$2.05127
Star Wars1977$215.54$2.2397
Star Wars (re-issue)1997$245.40$4.5953
2Star Wars (subtotal)$460.94150


A couple numbers that just leap out at me:
  • E.T. fully trounced Titanic in terms of actual popularity, and Jaws - which is currently ranked 42 - was a fraction of a percent less popular than Titanic, despite grossing only 43% of Titanic's sales.
  • The re-release of Star Wars sold only about half as many tickets as the original run, but due to increased ticket prices, grossed 14% more.
  • If you ignore the re-release entirely, Star Wars only ranks 73, sandwiched between Hancock and Mission: Impossible II.
  • However... one could make the argument that Star Wars is actually the most popular movie of all time, both because - in terms of total tickets sold, when both runs are combined - it outsold even Titanic, and because 35% of the tickets sold were for a movie that was already 20 years old at the time. Practically everyone already knew not only the ending but the whole plot (um, spoiler alert?) because they'd already seen it on the so-called "small screen", and many had seen it the first time it was in theaters, yet the experience of seeing the re-release on the "big screen" was enough of a draw to sell nearly as many tickets as Dark Knight has. Something tells me a simultaneous re-release of Smokey the Bandit wouldn't have achieved quite the same result.

Comments

Gravatar Image1 - Just had a flashback to an old Dennis Miller routine where he said he was recently in North Carolina. Out of boredom he had gone to see Smokey and the Bandit and after the movie the crowd broke into discussion groups.

Gravatar Image2 - Re: "my goodness, that makes me feel old... Star Wars came out six months before I did"

Remind me to bitch-slap you next time I'm in Kennesaw, you damn snot-nosed punk. Emoticon

Gravatar Image3 - "You darn kids today, with yer rock and roll and yer Dan Fogelberg..."

Gravatar Image4 - @Devin - I was thinking the same thing. Emoticon

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